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Specifically, for low-tax states, the nave model will systematically under-predict actual sales (positive residual), as consumers from other states travel across state-lines to purchase cigarettes in the lower-tax state

Key Takeaways: Most smoke shop inventory losses are small, repeated gaps: a pack not scanned, a broken pipe not recorded, a reorder placed too late

Perhaps he believed it, perhaps he was trying to delude himself -- but in any event, he couldn't keep up the pretense for long

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